Do you agree with the author that some economists are forecasting the economy more so for what their party needs, as opposed to the actual truth? The New York Times is understood to have a liberal slant to it, do you see this article as being overly critical of republican economists? Do you suppose there are economists that do similar acts to meet the goals of the democratic party?
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Economic Biases
Biases exist in many aspects of life, such as sports, schools, states, and politics. In this article from the New York Times (link), the author explains his concerns for economists having biases towards the political party that they associate with, particularly the republican party. He argues that some economists have been off the mark in forecasting future economic conditions, simply because they try to align their predictions with their party's best interest. He points to the 2008-09 recession as an example of how these forecasts were wrong, as well as some predictions that are being made today.
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I am sure that both sides are subject to this kind of forecasting bias, but I think Bruce Bartlett oversteps his bounds a little by insinuating that the forecasts are biased by the political feelings of the economists, rather than by their economic feelings. It is likely that these economists are republicans because they believe that small government and low taxes are the key to economic prosperity, thus they will tend to see higher taxes as a harbinger of recession and economic difficulty. Elections, wherein the candidates have opposing economic strategies, add a whole new element of complexity to the already wildly inexact science of economic forecasting.
ReplyDeleteThis was a really interesting article that I hope leads Americans to question bias more frequently. I think that Karl made some valid points in stating that it's economic bias based on political feelings that are coming into play. However I don't honestly believe that these economist are also being biased toward their party just on a purely political note. Politics are corrupt in this country and many others and these economist as well as their political parties know that what they say can influence countless Americans. Which will lead to their candidate getting elected, which will lead to that said economist getting a pay increase for helping to sway voters. It is naive to look at politics as being 100% based on economics and policy.
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