In just a few days, Scottish voters will be faced with a huge and important decision that could drastically impact the future of Scotland: Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom and become an independent nation? Pre election polls show that the result is too close to call as of right now. David Cameron, the U.K. Prime Minister, has urged Scots to vote against the separation. Cameron said that Scottish independence could bring economic risks to Scotland and that a separation from the U.K. would be final. On the other hand, Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland, believes that Scotland is in a great position to become an independent nation.
"Scotland, with just 1% of the European Union's population, has around 20% of its fish stocks, a quarter of Europe's renewable energy potential and around 60% of the EU's conventional oil reserves," Mr. Salmond said. "Those huge resources, coupled with our massive human talents, means no country has ever been so well placed economically to become independent."
Scots will hit the polls Thursday to make this historic decision. The world will be watching.
My questions for all of you:
- Do you think Scotland should leave the United Kingdom? Why or why not?
- How could Scottish independence affect the United States and the rest of the world economically and geopolitically?
Here's an article from the Wall Street Journal on the topic: http://online.wsj.com/articles/leaders-differ-on-what-independence-would-mean-to-scotland-1410800712?KEYWORDS=scotland
Also, for those who don't really like reading news articles, I have provided a link to a video of John Oliver from HBO's Last Week Tonight talking about the issue. This video may not be as informative as an actual news article, but I thought it was kind of funny. Just a warning, this show is from HBO so there may be some foul language, just a heads up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YkLPxQp_y0
Here is a bit of a background on the "independence movement" leader, Alex Salmond. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/world/europe/long-road-from-fringe-to-scottish-referendum.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpHedThumbWell&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
ReplyDeleteI think it should be up to Scots if they want to leave the Union or not. There is a long history of oppression in the United Kingdom against Scots and some of the other peripheral kingdoms, as in Northern Ireland and Wales. Without getting too wrapped up in nostalgia, I think that secession and non-secession have both worked in the past. We are a country that voted to secede from Great Britain, so we should keep that in mind as we give advice to the Scots. On the other hand, the South voted to secede from the United States, yet a war was fought to prevent them from seceding. In the end, both scenarios were resolved in the United States, but one was resolved which much less bloodshed (the former.)
The question is, which is the better option? Since Scotland is an independent ethnic nation that has literally been ruled for hundreds of years, I think it makes sense to give them a taste of life on their own. I am guessing, were they to secede, that they would still enjoy many of the benefits of being in the Union, but they would have more jurisdiction on public policy issues. I think that this would be beneficial to the UK and even the world, as a competitive Scotland could challenge the long-standing institutions of England and make an alternative, possibly more inclusive and/or greener example of an Anglo-Saxon economy.
Most importantly, Scotland has its own national soccer team, therefore it should be independent. Just joking..
You can cast this whole thing in organic versus mechanistic views of society. If societies matter then the heart-wrenching issue is that the UK is not the true society for Scots; its government does not speak for the Scottish people. The mechanistic view would lead us to economic reasons why it is more efficient for the Scots to secede. Are there efficiency arguments here? (besides soccer)
ReplyDeleteWhat defines a society? I agree with your view that a "societal" view of the situation would lead us to want the UK to remain a cohesive unit and respect the differences between the English and the Scottish, but still to cooperate in government. But when can one decide that the arbitrary borders that we have drawn do not serve the best interest of the populace? Who makes societies in the first place and why must they persist the same way that they have for hundreds of years? It seems like a much larger issue to me
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ReplyDeleteOver the 300 years that England and Scotland have been in a union together, it is pretty safe to say that England has always been the dominant partner between the two, making decisions on the behave of both countries. As a result, there has been a long history of oppression by the English towards the Scottish as Brent mentioned earlier. Ultimately, I believe the Scottish people, as a whole, understand and share a common culture as well as a similar set of values and traditions that would carefully distinct them as a nation separate of England. In being a nation-state, Scotland should secede from England because only the Scots would know how best to serve its people. Furthermore, Scotland is in the best economic position of any country in the world considering to secede to currently pursue an actual secession.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest drawback in the decision to secede is the severed ties that Scotland would have to face afterwards with England. British Prime Minister David Cameron has already made it quite clear that if Scotland were to leave the Union that it would be forever. How much of Scotland’s economic success has been a product of their close tie with England? I do not know. However, I do believe that Scotland can continue economic success after England. I also believe that, in the long run, England will forgive and forget about a Scottish secession like they did with the United States and become close partners in the future.
Overall, I can only imagine that a Scottish secession would be good for the world economy because it would promote more competition.
I would like to politely disagree with you. There was a post on the Wall Street Journal this morning discussing the economic uncertainty that a Scottish secession would bring. There is a chart that shows Scotland's currency options at the top. Of the five options, all show drawbacks either right away or a few years down the line. One example is the Euro would not allow immediate membership. The other example is Sterlingization which is vulnerable to shock. Yes there are advantages such as a free hand to intervene with poverty rates and income inequality reductions. These known possibilities are not scary. The unknown is what is scary. What will happen to banks and bank deposits? I'm not certain we can make a comparison between the United States and Scotland. The situations are much more different than similar. Technology has advanced since the 1770s and also Scotland would border the UK instead of being an ocean's length apart. There is also not a huge area of land that Scotland could go conquer like the United States did. There is no viable reason that England would continue trades with Scotland when they can receive the products from another trustworthy nation. I don't think that Scotland has thought about the economic repercussions of a secession. If they have, they haven't articulated them publicly in a way that has convinced me. I am wondering what you think.
DeleteSource:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/vote-for-scotland-independence-could-usher-in-economic-uncertainty-1410968065?KEYWORDS=scotland
England has certainly taken a dominant role in control of the United Kingdom, politically, socially, and economically since its creation about 300 years ago. After just a few days abroad in Scotland, the resentment, distrust, and often straight up distain that Scots felt towards the English was made very clear to me. And at first mention to some Englishmen that I was studying in Scotland, they did not hesitate to express the many ways in which they felt superior to the Scots. It is likely that these attitudes do not always make for the most efficient and/or equitable policy for the Scots. In this light, an independent Scotland seems to make the most sense for the people of Scotland.
ReplyDeleteHowever, to focus more strictly on the economics, I am not sure that I agree with your conclusion Querubin, that the world economy would be better if Scotland secedes. I don’t know that it would increase competition, as much as it would hinder trade. This article outlines some ways in which an independent Scotland could destabilize the European Union, which would contribute to hindering trade as well as potentially spooking UK and consequently other financial markets: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/09/16/348018843/like-it-or-not-scotlands-drama-may-hit-your-wallet. Ultimately, Scotland seceding can maybe be seen as best economically for Scotland, but for the rest of the world it looks like markets are better off if Scotland remains a member of the EU.
Clearly, there are very serious economic and political ramifications with regard to Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom. I agree that the decision should be voted on by Scots for reasons mentioned above, however, the main issue that I struggle with, is if Scotland does secede will they remain in the EU. Now, I'm not downplaying the economic repercussions that will come from a UK secession, however, I believe that the decision to maintain (or work towards) EU membership carries the most economic significance.
ReplyDeleteIf Scotland remains in the EU, I think that the economic strife will be reparable and less destabilizing than if Scotland refuses EU membership, due to the liberal nature of the EU's trading policies. Personally, I can see the benefits for Scotland seceding from the UK, however, I can't justify any reasons for Scotland refusing EU membership, especially since it's usually the smaller countries who benefit most from European integration. If, however, Scotland secedes from the UK and refuses EU membership, then I would start to worry. The entire European economy would be hit extremely hard (given the dependence on Scottish resources), and the impact could be just as devastating for the United States economy.
In all, it's ultimately up to the Scots to decide their fate, however, while there will be a period of economic uncertainty given a secession (currency comes to mind), it's in the worlds' best interest for Scotland to achieve European integration (EU membership).
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